Whisnant Team Rankings - Runs Created Method

Today the season’s inaugural Whisnant ratings using Runs Created are presented. They will be compared to the RS/RA rankings given yesterday.

In the Runs Created (RC) ratings, offensive and defensive values are determined for each statistical number that enters into Bill James’ Runs Created formula (i.e., AB, H, 2B, 3B, HR, BB, IBB, HBP, SF, SH, SB, CS, SO) by a best fit to actual game totals for all games this season, accounting for strength of schedule and a possible home field advantage, using a procedure similar to the one used for the RS/RA ratings. The average offensive and defensive stats per game are then used to calculate an offensive and defensive RC rating, which can be interpreted as the expected RC and RC allowed, respectively, when playing an average team on a neutral field. The RC ratings are then converted to an expected win percentage via the Pythagenpat formula.

Runs Created was developed by Bill James in the 1970s to more accurately model the way in which runs are scored. In its original form it was essentially OBA*SLG/PA, with the idea being that first you must get on base, then you must advance the runners home, so scoring runs involves the product of these two abilities. James has modified Runs Created over the years; I will be using the version from The Bill James Handbook 2005, which includes other commonly reported team stats such as SB, CS, SH, GDP, SO and IBB:

RC = A*B/C,

where

A = H + BB + HBP – CS – GDP

B = 1.125*1B + 1.69*2B + 3.02*3B + 3.73*HR + .29*(BB+HBP-IBB)

+ .492*(SB+SF+SH) – .04*SO

C = AB + BB + HBP + SF + SH.

Since inter-league play has not started, the ratings will be calculated separately for each league. The AL RC ratings through games of May 21 (the RS/RA rankings and ratings are given for comparison):

RC Rank	Team	RCRating	ORC	DRC	W	L	RS/RARank	RS/RA Rating
1	Tor	.620	5.62	4.35	27	17	1	.600
2	Det	.579	4.92	4.16	23	16	2	.594
3	KCR	.565	4.59	4.00	21	20	6	.514
4	Tex	.541	5.62	5.15	23	17	4	.531
5	Ana	.532	5.15	4.81	21	19	9	.500
6	Cle	.528	5.73	5.40	16	26	8	.501
7	NYY	.527	5.76	5.44	24	17	7	.511
8	Tam	.510	5.28	5.17	21	22	5	.527
9	Bos	.509	5.36	5.26	25	16	3	.564
10	Min	.497	5.29	5.32	19	23	10	.479
11	Oak	.411	4.15	5.02	15	23	11	.459
12	Bal	.402	4.85	5.98	16	25	13	.405
13	Sea	.396	3.80	4.74	19	23	12	.413
14	ChW	.387	4.13	5.26	17	23	14	.397

Toronto and Detroit lead the way, as they did in the RS/RA rankings. The bottom five teams are ranked nearly the same as with RS/RA, but there is a major shuffling in the third through ninth spots.

Anaheim and especially Kansas City rate significantly better using RC, which might mean that by random chance they scored fewer and/or allowed more runs than their raw stats would normally indicate. If so, and if they continue to hit/defend at their current rate, they could show improvement in the future.

On the other hand, Oakland and especially Boston rate significantly lower by RC than by RC/RA, meaning they have scored more and/or allowed less than their raw stats would indicate, which may not bode well for the future if the trend continues. Despite the lower rating using RC, Oakland is in 11th place in both rankings.

The NL RC ratings through games of May 21:

RC Rank	Team	RC rating	ORC	DRC	W	L	RS/RA Rank	RS/RA Rating
1	LAD	.643	5.30	3.89	29	13	1	.639
2	NYM	.592	5.48	4.51	21	19	3	.551
3	Mil	.569	4.99	4.31	26	15	2	.598
4	StL	.538	4.63	4.27	24	17	4	.551
5	Atl	.520	4.22	4.04	20	20	11	.466
6	Cin	.518	4.64	4.46	21	19	8	.514
7	Pit	.514	4.61	4.47	19	22	5	.533
8	ChC	.504	4.65	4.61	21	18	6	.528
9	Phi	.465	5.34	5.74	22	17	7	.521
10	Hou	.465	4.74	5.11	18	21	10	.472
11	Col	.454	4.83	5.32	16	24	9	.493
12	SDP	.452	4.14	4.57	19	22	15	.410
13	Ari	.449	4.32	4.81	17	24	14	.441
14	Was	.448	5.59	6.24	12	28	16	.400
15	Fla	.435	4.28	4.91	19	23	13	.453
16	SFG	.431	3.91	4.52	19	21	12	.459

Los Angeles is the best team according to both the RC and RS/RA ratings. The NL Central has five of the top eight teams, while the NL West has four of the bottom six.

Atlanta is rated much higher using RC, bypassing six teams compared to the RS/RA rankings. If they continue to perform at the same level, they could have an improvement in their record in the future. Washington, San Diego and New York also appear significantly stronger than with RS/RA.

Philadelphia has a significantly lower rating using RC, and Milwaukee, Pittsburgh, Chicago, Colorado, Florida and San Francisco are also somewhat weaker.

The next RC ratings will be presented after inter-league play is completed on June 28, and will combine all 30 teams into a single set of ratings.